Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 5–12% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day OO 3801 SLC 08:06 → GEG 09:13 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest DL 1503 SLC 15:25 → GEG 16:08 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time

Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


OO 3801 SkyWest	SLC 08:06	GEG 09:13	5%	2%	0.4%	no record
OO 3744 SkyWest	SLC 08:08	GEG 09:01	6%	2%	0.4%	no record
DL 1452 Delta Flight history →	SLC 11:30	GEG 12:12	11%	2%	0.6%	82%
DL 1466 Delta Flight history →	SLC 23:15	GEG 23:55	12%	3%	0.6%	82%
DL 1503 Delta Flight history →	SLC 15:25	GEG 16:08	12%	2%	0.6%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON