Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 6–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


UA 1322 United Flight history →	SLC 09:41	IAD 15:47	6%	2%	0.5%	97%
DL 847 Delta Flight history →	SLC 17:30	IAD 23:29	13%	3%	0.6%	84%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dulles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dulles is 2 h ahead of Salt Lake City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	SLC 05:15 → DEN 06:54UA 5683 · flown by SkyWest	1h 06m Denver	DEN 08:00 → IAD 13:26UA 1101	6h 11m	98%	91%
Delta Details →	SLC 06:00 → DTW 11:24DL 2289	3h 44m Detroit	DTW 15:08 → IAD 16:41DL 1787	8h 41m	100%	91%
Delta Details →	SLC 08:00 → MSP 11:29DL 2916	3h 01m Minneapolis	MSP 14:30 → IAD 18:04DL 3783 · flown by SkyWest	8h 04m	99%	91%
Delta Details →	SLC 14:00 → MSP 17:32DL 2936	2h 18m Minneapolis	MSP 19:50 → IAD 23:20DL 4129 · flown by SkyWest	7h 20m	98%	90%
Delta Details →	SLC 07:00 → ATL 12:44DL 907	2h 15m Atlanta	ATL 14:59 → IAD 16:46DL 1695	7h 46m	99%	88%
American Details →	SLC 05:00 → DFW 08:46AA 1214	1h 30m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 10:16 → IAD 14:31AA 524	7h 31m	98%	88%
United Details →	SLC 15:55 → ORD 20:08UA 1963	1h 59m Chicago	ORD 22:07 → IAD 01:11 +1UA 1922	7h 16m	99%	87%
United Details →	SLC 07:00 → DEN 08:42UA 1232	3h 44m Denver	DEN 12:26 → IAD 17:58UA 2853	8h 58m	99%	87%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON