Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: UA 2366 at 06:45 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 10–13%.

Safest bet that day UA 2366 SLC 06:45 → IAH 10:57 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest DL 1299 SLC 13:45 → IAH 17:53 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


UA 2366 United Flight history →	SLC 06:45	IAH 10:57	5%	2%	0.5%	93%
OO 5545 SkyWest	SLC 16:07	IAH 20:27	10%	3%	0.6%	no record
DL 1532 Delta	SLC 09:36	IAH 13:46	11%	2%	0.5%	no record
UA 497 United Flight history →	SLC 13:00	IAH 17:12	13%	3%	0.5%	81%
DL 2514 Delta Flight history →	SLC 17:45	IAH 21:50	13%	3%	0.5%	79%
DL 1299 Delta Flight history →	SLC 13:45	IAH 17:53	15%	3%	0.5%	80%
UA 6282 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	SLC 17:33	IAH 21:50	15%	7%	1.6%	85%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON