Today looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 5–9% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today DL 3765 SLC 11:16 → IDA 12:25 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest DL 2608 SLC 21:04 → IDA 22:07 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time

Against a calm day 7% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 6% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 3765 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SLC 11:16	IDA 12:25	5%	4%	0.1%	93%
DL 3895 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SLC 17:10	IDA 18:18	5%	4%	0.1%	89%
DL 2608 Delta Flight history →	SLC 21:04	IDA 22:07	9%	3%	0.6%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON