Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 6–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 1909 SLC 23:45 → JFK 06:06 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest B6 372 SLC 00:02 → JFK 06:38 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1909 Delta	SLC 23:45	JFK 06:06	6%	2%	0.5%	no record
DL 1792 Delta Flight history →	SLC 09:59	JFK 16:47	8%	2%	0.5%	84%
DL 697 Delta Flight history →	SLC 17:10	JFK 23:47	10%	2%	0.6%	82%
DL 671 Delta Flight history →	SLC 14:35	JFK 21:25	11%	3%	0.6%	79%
B6 372 JetBlue Flight history →	SLC 00:02	JFK 06:38	13%	3%	0.8%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON