Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Tomorrow: UA 5408 at 07:45 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 11–19%.

Safest bet that day UA 5408 SLC 07:45 → LAX 09:15 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest WN 2374 SLC 16:26 → LAX 17:17 · 19% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 5408 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SLC 07:45	LAX 09:15	5%	2%	0.5%	90%
DL 829 Delta Flight history →	SLC 11:30	LAX 12:27	9%	2%	0.6%	88%
F9 4129 Frontier Flight history →	SLC 12:02	LAX 13:13	9%	3%	0.8%	90%
DL 1095 Delta Flight history →	SLC 09:35	LAX 10:34	10%	2%	0.6%	92%
DL 1087 Delta Flight history →	SLC 07:53	LAX 08:50	11%	2%	0.6%	92%
DL 1197 Delta Flight history →	SLC 22:45	LAX 23:42	11%	2%	0.6%	84%
DL 841 Delta Flight history →	SLC 15:40	LAX 16:36	12%	3%	0.6%	81%
DL 1142 Delta Flight history →	SLC 20:40	LAX 21:45	13%	4%	0.6%	76%
DL 1161 Delta Flight history →	SLC 17:10	LAX 18:07	15%	3%	0.6%	85%
WN 2374 Southwest	SLC 16:26	LAX 17:17	19%	3%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON