Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow: DL 2069 at 23:36 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 14–30%.

Safest bet that day DL 2069 SLC 23:36 → MCO 06:00 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest DL 1691 SLC 11:50 → MCO 18:10 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time

Against a calm day 18% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2069 Delta Flight history →	SLC 23:36	MCO 06:00	11%	3%	1.0%	85%
DL 2032 Delta Flight history →	SLC 09:35	MCO 16:13	14%	4%	1.3%	84%
DL 2056 Delta Flight history →	SLC 17:25	MCO 23:55	17%	6%	1.2%	82%
DL 1691 Delta Flight history →	SLC 11:50	MCO 18:10	30%	8%	1.3%	84%worse than usual

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	SLC 08:10 → ATL 13:54DL 897	1h 06m Atlanta	ATL 15:00 → MCO 16:40DL 1150	6h 30m	95%	73%
Delta Details →	SLC 15:31 → ATL 21:25DL 875	1h 00m Atlanta	ATL 22:25 → MCO 23:58DL 1162	6h 27m	89%	72%
Delta Details →	SLC 13:35 → ATL 19:22DL 906	53m Atlanta	ATL 20:15 → MCO 21:54DL 1735	6h 19m	88%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON