Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, DL 2515 at 13:40, with a 11% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


DL 2515 Delta Flight history →	SLC 13:40	MEM 17:40	11%	3%	0.6%	85%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Memphis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Memphis is 1 h ahead of Salt Lake City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SLC 07:00 → ATL 12:44DL 907	3h 53m Atlanta	ATL 16:37 → MEM 17:02DL 1681	9h 02m	100%	89%
United Details →	SLC 07:00 → DEN 08:42UA 1232	2h 19m Denver	DEN 11:01 → MEM 14:30UA 2789	6h 30m	98%	88%
Delta Details →	SLC 14:00 → MSP 17:32DL 2936	2h 33m Minneapolis	MSP 20:05 → MEM 22:15DL 4035 · flown by SkyWest	7h 15m	98%	88%
Delta Details →	SLC 08:10 → ATL 13:54DL 897	3h 59m Atlanta	ATL 17:53 → MEM 18:16DL 2939	9h 06m	100%	87%
American Details →	SLC 05:00 → DFW 08:46AA 1214	3h 41m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 12:27 → MEM 14:04AA 3888 · flown by Envoy	8h 04m	100%	87%
Delta Details →	SLC 13:29 → AUS 17:19DL 2689	2h 36m Austin	AUS 19:55 → MEM 21:48DL 3952 · flown by SkyWest	7h 19m	98%	86%
Delta Details →	SLC 11:10 → MSP 14:40DL 2924	1h 05m Minneapolis	MSP 15:45 → MEM 17:52DL 4063 · flown by SkyWest	5h 42m	95%	85%
Delta Details →	SLC 11:05 → ATL 16:49DL 885	3h 36m Atlanta	ATL 20:25 → MEM 20:48DL 3020	8h 43m	99%	84%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON