Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6: United via Denver, leaving 07:00, is the safest bet: 82% chance of reaching Miami on time.

Nonstops that day


DL 2040 Delta Flight history →	SLC 23:00	MIA 05:40	10%	3%	0.8%	91%
AA 3282 American	SLC 00:05	MIA 06:30	13%	3%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Miami on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Miami is 2 h ahead of Salt Lake City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	SLC 05:15 → DEN 06:54UA 5683 · flown by SkyWest	2h 51m Denver	DEN 09:45 → MIA 15:43UA 1418	8h 28m	99%	85%
American Details →	SLC 05:00 → DFW 08:46AA 1214	1h 34m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 10:20 → MIA 14:29AA 1454	7h 29m	98%	85%
Delta Details →	SLC 09:59 → JFK 16:47DL 1792	3h 08m New York	JFK 19:55 → MIA 23:37DL 1428	11h 38m	100%	85%
Delta Details →	SLC 13:35 → ATL 19:22DL 906	3h 31m Atlanta	ATL 22:53 → MIA 00:55 +1DL 1589	9h 20m	99%	84%
Delta Details →	SLC 14:00 → MSP 17:32DL 2936	1h 21m Minneapolis	MSP 18:53 → MIA 23:35DL 2187	7h 35m	95%	83%
Delta Details →	SLC 07:00 → ATL 12:44DL 907	2h 06m Atlanta	ATL 14:50 → MIA 16:55DL 1386	7h 55m	99%	82%
American Details →	SLC 12:17 → PHX 13:02AA 6422 · flown by SkyWest	2h 50m Phoenix	PHX 15:52 → MIA 23:29AA 1222	9h 12m	98%	81%
Delta Details →	SLC 06:00 → DTW 11:24DL 2289	2h 53m Detroit	DTW 14:17 → MIA 17:18DL 2548	9h 18m	100%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON