Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 3–8% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 3797 SLC 22:50 → OAK 23:50 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest WN 3995 SLC 14:38 → OAK 15:30 · 8% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 5% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 5% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 3797 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SLC 22:50	OAK 23:50	3%	2%	0.5%	95%
DL 4134 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SLC 10:45	OAK 11:46	3%	2%	0.6%	93%
DL 3903 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SLC 16:58	OAK 17:44	6%	2%	0.6%	91%
WN 3995 Southwest	SLC 14:38	OAK 15:30	8%	3%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON