Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: AA 2883 at 06:04 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15%.

Safest bet that day AA 2883 SLC 06:04 → ORD 10:25 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest AA 1873 SLC 16:38 → ORD 20:49 · 15% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2883 American Flight history →	SLC 06:04	ORD 10:25	4%	2%	0.6%	85%
UA 1502 United Flight history →	SLC 08:00	ORD 12:20	6%	3%	0.5%	84%
DL 2247 Delta Flight history →	SLC 07:50	ORD 12:00	6%	2%	0.5%	88%
UA 1382 United Flight history →	SLC 12:42	ORD 16:52	11%	3%	0.5%	76%
AA 3072 American	SLC 11:32	ORD 15:47	11%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 1963 United Flight history →	SLC 15:55	ORD 20:07	14%	4%	0.5%	73%
AA 3258 American Flight history →	SLC 13:24	ORD 17:29	14%	5%	0.6%	60%
DL 2413 Delta Flight history →	SLC 17:21	ORD 21:29	15%	3%	0.6%	75%
DL 2377 Delta Flight history →	SLC 14:40	ORD 18:57	15%	3%	0.6%	72%
AA 1873 American	SLC 16:38	ORD 20:49	15%	4%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON