Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 4–9% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day OO 3132 SLC 08:46 → PDX 09:51 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest DL 1244 SLC 15:17 → PDX 16:09 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time

Against a calm day 6% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 5% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


OO 3132 SkyWest	SLC 08:46	PDX 09:51	4%	2%	0.6%	no record
AS 3430 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SLC 12:42	PDX 13:38	5%	3%	0.5%	90%
DL 1203 Delta Flight history →	SLC 07:45	PDX 08:37	5%	2%	0.7%	89%
DL 1209 Delta Flight history →	SLC 11:15	PDX 12:10	6%	2%	0.6%	89%
DL 1373 Delta Flight history →	SLC 22:50	PDX 23:44	8%	2%	0.6%	89%
DL 1244 Delta Flight history →	SLC 15:17	PDX 16:09	9%	3%	0.6%	88%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON