Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 6–9% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 872 SLC 07:15 → PHL 13:43 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest DL 2022 SLC 11:20 → PHL 17:39 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time

Against a calm day 7% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 872 American	SLC 07:15	PHL 13:43	6%	3%	0.8%	no record
DL 2075 Delta Flight history →	SLC 00:08	PHL 06:12	7%	2%	0.6%	83%
DL 2022 Delta Flight history →	SLC 11:20	PHL 17:39	9%	2%	0.6%	86%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	SLC 07:00 → DEN 08:42UA 1232	53m Denver	DEN 09:35 → PHL 15:12UA 1575	6h 12m	93%	84%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON