Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 13 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 3427 at 07:01 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 10–16%.

Safest bet that day WN 3427 SLC 07:01 → PHX 07:46 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 1439 SLC 19:39 → PHX 20:39 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 77% on time

Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3427 Southwest	SLC 07:01	PHX 07:46	3%	1%	0.5%	no record
AA 6327 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SLC 07:13	PHX 07:57	6%	3%	0.5%	91%
DL 1447 Delta Flight history →	SLC 08:05	PHX 08:44	6%	2%	0.6%	95%
WN 2759 Southwest	SLC 10:12	PHX 10:47	7%	1%	0.5%	no record
AA 6422 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SLC 12:17	PHX 13:02	8%	3%	0.5%	87%
AA 6462 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SLC 15:07	PHX 16:07	9%	3%	0.5%	96%
WN 1666 Southwest	SLC 13:22	PHX 14:03	10%	2%	0.5%	no record
WN 1089 Southwest	SLC 14:43	PHX 15:25	10%	2%	0.5%	no record
WN 4550 Southwest	SLC 18:19	PHX 19:11	10%	3%	0.5%	no record
DL 1431 Delta Flight history →	SLC 11:30	PHX 12:12	10%	2%	0.6%	86%
DL 1496 Delta Flight history →	SLC 22:45	PHX 23:31	10%	3%	0.6%	88%
DL 1738 Delta Flight history →	SLC 15:20	PHX 16:04	11%	3%	0.6%	85%
F9 1439 Frontier Flight history →	SLC 19:39	PHX 20:39	16%	6%	0.8%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON