Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: WN 683 at 08:01 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 11–15%.

Safest bet that day WN 683 SLC 08:01 → SAN 09:08 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3964 SLC 15:48 → SAN 16:46 · 18% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 683 Southwest	SLC 08:01	SAN 09:08	6%	1%	0.6%	no record
AS 3018 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SLC 07:40	SAN 08:50	8%	3%	0.6%	93%
DL 1177 Delta Flight history →	SLC 07:45	SAN 08:41	8%	2%	0.6%	93%
DL 1202 Delta Flight history →	SLC 22:55	SAN 23:50	11%	3%	0.7%	83%
DL 1296 Delta Flight history →	SLC 11:10	SAN 12:08	11%	3%	0.6%	84%
DL 1252 Delta Flight history →	SLC 17:10	SAN 18:06	15%	3%	0.6%	84%
DL 1210 Delta Flight history →	SLC 15:00	SAN 15:56	15%	3%	0.6%	76%
OO 3059 SkyWest	SLC 14:36	SAN 15:27	15%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 3964 Southwest	SLC 15:48	SAN 16:46	18%	3%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON