Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 4–6% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 3803 SLC 21:05 → SBA 22:05 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest DL 3853 SLC 15:00 → SBA 16:03 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time

Against a calm day 5% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 5% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 3803 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SLC 21:05	SBA 22:05	4%	2%	0.7%	96%
DL 3841 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SLC 10:50	SBA 11:59	5%	2%	0.6%	96%
OO 3698 SkyWest	SLC 10:52	SBA 12:06	5%	3%	0.6%	no record
DL 3853 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SLC 15:00	SBA 16:03	6%	2%	0.7%	87%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON