Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 11 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: AS 3344 at 07:02 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 11–21%.

Safest bet that day AS 3344 SLC 07:02 → SEA 08:27 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest AS 796 SLC 11:17 → SEA 12:30 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time

Against a calm day 16% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AS 3344 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SLC 07:02	SEA 08:27	11%	3%	0.5%	88%
DL 2874 Delta Flight history →	SLC 07:50	SEA 09:02	11%	2%	0.6%	93%
OO 3281 SkyWest	SLC 18:33	SEA 20:00	11%	4%	0.5%	no record
DL 2995 Delta Flight history →	SLC 11:35	SEA 12:49	14%	2%	0.6%	89%
DL 2921 Delta Flight history →	SLC 13:20	SEA 14:35	14%	3%	0.6%	85%
DL 2817 Delta Flight history →	SLC 15:15	SEA 16:28	17%	3%	0.6%	77%
DL 871 Delta Flight history →	SLC 17:20	SEA 18:33	17%	3%	0.6%	82%
DL 2016 Delta Flight history →	SLC 20:44	SEA 22:00	18%	3%	0.6%	46%
AS 664 Alaska Flight history →	SLC 12:51	SEA 14:04	19%	3%	0.6%	88%
AS 734 Alaska Flight history →	SLC 16:00	SEA 17:16	21%	4%	0.6%	67%
AS 796 Alaska Flight history →	SLC 11:17	SEA 12:30	23%	2%	0.6%	87%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON