Today: UA 4763 at 06:05 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 10–20%.

Safest bet today UA 4763 SLC 06:05 → SFO 07:19 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest DL 2762 SLC 20:59 → SFO 21:59 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 59% on time

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 4763 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SLC 06:05	SFO 07:19	5%	3%	0.2%	91%
DL 920 Delta Flight history →	SLC 07:50	SFO 08:51	9%	3%	0.2%	67%
UA 1225 United	SLC 16:36	SFO 17:55	10%	4%	0.5%	no record
OO 6085 SkyWest	SLC 07:17	SFO 08:20	11%	6%	0.3%	no record
DL 1091 Delta Flight history →	SLC 22:50	SFO 23:52	13%	3%	0.7%	66%
UA 1552 United	SLC 09:28	SFO 10:41	14%	6%	0.2%	no record
OO 5530 SkyWest	SLC 13:58	SFO 15:09	15%	6%	0.6%	no record
DL 1088 Delta Flight history →	SLC 15:10	SFO 16:12	16%	5%	0.7%	66%
DL 902 Delta Flight history →	SLC 11:00	SFO 12:03	16%	4%	0.1%	66%
DL 2762 Delta Flight history →	SLC 20:59	SFO 21:59	20%	3%	0.6%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON