Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 3–12% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day OO 113 SLC 08:00 → SJC 09:01 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest DL 1172 SLC 17:17 → SJC 18:13 · 12% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 8% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


OO 113 SkyWest	SLC 08:00	SJC 09:01	3%	2%	0.5%	no record
DL 1254 Delta Flight history →	SLC 11:40	SJC 12:35	7%	2%	0.6%	90%
DL 1260 Delta Flight history →	SLC 15:10	SJC 16:04	8%	3%	0.6%	90%
DL 1172 Delta	SLC 17:17	SJC 18:13	12%	3%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON