Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 3–9% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 1816 SLC 07:21 → SMF 08:13 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest DL 1342 SLC 15:25 → SMF 16:07 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time

Against a calm day 6% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 6% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1816 Southwest	SLC 07:21	SMF 08:13	3%	1%	0.5%	no record
DL 1367 Delta Flight history →	SLC 08:10	SMF 08:51	5%	2%	0.6%	93%
DL 1582 Delta Flight history →	SLC 23:04	SMF 23:44	6%	2%	0.6%	90%
DL 1423 Delta Flight history →	SLC 11:35	SMF 12:16	7%	2%	0.6%	86%
DL 1342 Delta Flight history →	SLC 15:25	SMF 16:07	9%	3%	0.6%	83%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON