Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: United via Denver, leaving 07:00, is the safest bet: 82% chance of reaching Tampa on time.

Nonstops that day


DL 2077 Delta Flight history →	SLC 23:50	TPA 06:01	11%	2%	1.0%	88%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Tampa on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Tampa is 2 h ahead of Salt Lake City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SLC 07:00 → ATL 12:44DL 907	1h 25m Atlanta	ATL 14:09 → TPA 15:51DL 1720	6h 51m	98%	86%
United Details →	SLC 05:15 → DEN 06:54UA 5683 · flown by SkyWest	2h 46m Denver	DEN 09:40 → TPA 15:14UA 1010	7h 59m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	SLC 14:00 → MSP 17:32DL 2936	2h 43m Minneapolis	MSP 20:15 → TPA 00:15 +1DL 2385	8h 15m	98%	86%
United Details →	SLC 08:30 → DEN 10:27UA 5642 · flown by SkyWest	3h 28m Denver	DEN 13:55 → TPA 19:33UA 2375	9h 03m	99%	85%
United Details →	SLC 09:38 → IAD 15:40UA 1322	2h 20m Dulles	IAD 18:00 → TPA 20:39UA 1140	9h 01m	100%	83%
Delta Details →	SLC 09:59 → JFK 16:47DL 1792	3h 08m New York	JFK 19:55 → TPA 23:20DL 1636	11h 21m	99%	83%
Delta Details →	SLC 08:10 → ATL 13:54DL 897	3h 28m Atlanta	ATL 17:22 → TPA 18:57DL 1594	8h 47m	100%	82%
Delta Details →	SLC 13:35 → ATL 19:22DL 906	3h 37m Atlanta	ATL 22:59 → TPA 00:29 +1DL 1560	8h 54m	99%	82%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON