Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, DL 3825 at 19:53, with a 6% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


DL 3825 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SLC 19:53	TUL 23:31	6%	2%	0.5%	83%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Tulsa on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Tulsa is 1 h ahead of Salt Lake City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	SLC 05:15 → DEN 06:54UA 5683 · flown by SkyWest	3h 10m Denver	DEN 10:04 → TUL 12:59UA 5315 · flown by SkyWest	6h 44m	100%	92%
United Details →	SLC 08:30 → DEN 10:27UA 5642 · flown by SkyWest	3h 13m Denver	DEN 13:40 → TUL 16:29UA 5311 · flown by SkyWest	6h 59m	99%	89%
United Details →	SLC 06:45 → IAH 10:57UA 2366	3h 41m Houston	IAH 14:38 → TUL 16:29UA 6176 · flown by Mesa	8h 44m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	SLC 08:10 → ATL 13:54DL 897	3h 07m Atlanta	ATL 17:01 → TUL 18:04DL 2837	8h 54m	100%	87%
Delta Details →	SLC 13:35 → ATL 19:22DL 906	2h 56m Atlanta	ATL 22:18 → TUL 23:19DL 2043	8h 44m	98%	85%
American Details →	SLC 05:00 → DFW 08:46AA 1214	2h 08m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 10:54 → TUL 12:13AA 2352	6h 13m	99%	83%
United Details →	SLC 13:00 → IAH 17:12UA 497	2h 50m Houston	IAH 20:02 → TUL 21:54UA 1927	7h 54m	98%	81%
United Details →	SLC 13:05 → DEN 14:51UA 4720 · flown by SkyWest	2h 46m Denver	DEN 17:37 → TUL 20:27UA 1937	6h 22m	99%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON