Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 3–7% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day OO 4617 SLC 05:57 → TUS 07:09 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest DL 3717 SLC 15:00 → TUS 16:06 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time

Against a calm day 5% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 5% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


OO 4617 SkyWest	SLC 05:57	TUS 07:09	3%	2%	0.5%	no record
DL 3718 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SLC 09:25	TUS 10:24	4%	2%	0.5%	97%
DL 4054 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SLC 20:30	TUS 21:29	6%	2%	0.5%	86%
DL 3717 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SLC 15:00	TUS 16:06	7%	2%	0.5%	94%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON