Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, DL 3620 at 13:40, with a 9% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


DL 3620 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SLC 13:40	XNA 17:27	9%	5%	0.6%	85%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Fayetteville/Springdale/ on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Fayetteville/Springdale/ is 1 h ahead of Salt Lake City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	SLC 05:00 → DFW 08:46AA 1214	3h 43m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 12:29 → XNA 13:52AA 3803 · flown by Envoy	7h 52m	99%	89%
American Details →	SLC 15:27 → ORD 19:37AA 3258	2h 45m Chicago	ORD 22:22 → XNA 00:06 +1AA 3941 · flown by Envoy	7h 39m	100%	89%
United Details →	SLC 05:15 → DEN 06:54UA 5683 · flown by SkyWest	2h 56m Denver	DEN 09:50 → XNA 12:47UA 5267 · flown by SkyWest	6h 32m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	SLC 07:00 → ATL 12:44DL 907	2h 48m Atlanta	ATL 15:32 → XNA 16:27DL 5128 · flown by Endeavor	8h 27m	100%	88%
United Details →	SLC 08:30 → DEN 10:27UA 5642 · flown by SkyWest	3h 03m Denver	DEN 13:30 → XNA 16:25UA 5641 · flown by SkyWest	6h 55m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	SLC 08:00 → MSP 11:29DL 2916	3h 12m Minneapolis	MSP 14:41 → XNA 16:37DL 5022 · flown by Endeavor	7h 37m	99%	87%
American Details →	SLC 06:54 → DFW 10:37AA 644	3h 23m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 14:00 → XNA 15:23AA 3840 · flown by Envoy	7h 29m	98%	87%
Delta Details →	SLC 09:55 → ATL 15:39DL 835	3h 28m Atlanta	ATL 19:07 → XNA 20:03DL 2598	9h 08m	100%	85%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	SLC 16:56 → DFW 20:40AA 1456	49m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 21:29 → XNA 23:03AA 1197	5h 07m	67%	51%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON