tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, WN 3385 at 10:48, with a 14% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 3385 Southwest SMF 10:48 AUS 16:13 14% 2% 0.4% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Austin on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Austin is 2 h ahead of Sacramento). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → SMF 05:00 → DEN 08:22UA 1889 1h 43m Denver DEN 10:05 → AUS 13:20UA 1026 6h 20m 99% 89%
UnitedDetails → SMF 08:09 → IAD 16:15UA 1742 1h 45m Dulles IAD 18:00 → AUS 20:35UA 2337 10h 26m 98% 86%
AmericanDetails → SMF 06:00 → PHX 07:55AA 1867 1h 25m Phoenix PHX 09:20 → AUS 13:45AA 1059 5h 45m 97% 86%
UnitedDetails → SMF 08:50 → DEN 12:16UA 2285 3h 19m Denver DEN 15:35 → AUS 18:48UA 1899 7h 58m 99% 85%
AlaskaDetails → SMF 11:53 → PDX 13:42AS 3003 · flown by SkyWest 3h 57m Portland PDX 17:39 → AUS 23:49AS 1370 9h 56m 100% 85%
UnitedDetails → SMF 13:15 → IAH 19:10UA 1949 3h 05m Houston IAH 22:15 → AUS 23:12UA 1179 7h 57m 98% 85%
UnitedDetails → SMF 14:07 → SFO 15:10UA 5323 · flown by SkyWest 3h 08m San Francisco SFO 18:18 → AUS 23:58UA 2332 7h 51m 99% 85%
AlaskaDetails → SMF 13:30 → SAN 15:14AS 3439 · flown by SkyWest 2h 34m San Diego SAN 17:48 → AUS 23:00AS 3292 · flown by SkyWest 7h 30m 100% 84%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → SMF 07:53 → SEA 10:05DL 4075 · flown by SkyWest 55m Seattle SEA 11:00 → AUS 17:16DL 831 7h 23m 61% 45%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON