tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 8–12% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today

All 2 nonstops →
WN 3678 Southwest SMF 07:16 BNA 13:34 8% 1% 0.1% no record
WN 3626 Southwest SMF 08:33 BNA 14:37 12% 2% 0.1% no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Nashville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Nashville is 2 h ahead of Sacramento). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → SMF 05:00 → DEN 08:22UA 1889 1h 27m Denver DEN 09:49 → BNA 13:38UA 355 6h 38m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → SMF 12:21 → ATL 20:05DL 904 2h 55m Atlanta ATL 23:00 → BNA 23:15DL 3121 8h 54m 99% 89%
SouthwestDetails → SMF 18:33 → SAN 20:09WN 3670 2h 21m San Diego SAN 22:30 → BNA 04:23 +1WN 2511 7h 50m 100% 87%
DeltaDetails → SMF 06:30 → ATL 14:09DL 741 2h 36m Atlanta ATL 16:45 → BNA 16:57DL 1693 8h 27m 98% 87%
DeltaDetails → SMF 06:15 → MSP 11:38DL 2229 1h 12m Minneapolis MSP 12:50 → BNA 14:52DL 2843 6h 37m 96% 87%
DeltaDetails → SMF 05:59 → SLC 08:42DL 1526 1h 15m Salt Lake City SLC 09:57 → BNA 14:16DL 2214 6h 17m 96% 85%
DeltaDetails → SMF 13:36 → SLC 16:13DL 1423 2h 32m Salt Lake City SLC 18:45 → BNA 23:05DL 2317 7h 29m 99% 84%
UnitedDetails → SMF 07:00 → ORD 13:10UA 2370 2h 59m Chicago ORD 16:09 → BNA 17:56UA 1897 8h 56m 99% 83%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → SMF 13:11 → PHX 15:14AA 1677 56m Phoenix PHX 16:10 → BNA 21:31AA 1370 6h 20m 67% 45%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON