Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 7 nonstops are 2–9% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 3682 SMF 06:28 → BUR 07:54 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1664 SMF 20:58 → BUR 22:19 · 9% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 6% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 5% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3682 Southwest	SMF 06:28	BUR 07:54	2%	1%	1.2%	no record
WN 3683 Southwest	SMF 08:57	BUR 10:21	3%	1%	1.2%	no record
WN 3689 Southwest	SMF 10:34	BUR 11:55	6%	1%	1.2%	no record
WN 3684 Southwest	SMF 12:12	BUR 13:30	8%	2%	0.8%	no record
WN 3685 Southwest	SMF 15:20	BUR 16:51	8%	2%	0.8%	no record
WN 3687 Southwest	SMF 16:46	BUR 18:05	9%	3%	0.8%	no record
WN 1664 Southwest	SMF 20:58	BUR 22:19	9%	5%	1.0%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON