tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6: United via Denver, leaving 05:00, is the safest bet: 90% chance of reaching Baltimore on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 3690 Southwest SMF 22:39 BWI 06:40 7% 2% 0.5% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Baltimore on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Baltimore is 3 h ahead of Sacramento). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → SMF 05:00 → DEN 08:22UA 1889 1h 24m Denver DEN 09:46 → BWI 15:17UA 1362 7h 17m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → SMF 06:15 → MSP 11:38DL 2229 3h 03m Minneapolis MSP 14:41 → BWI 18:15DL 2565 9h 00m 99% 90%
UnitedDetails → SMF 05:15 → IAH 11:01UA 2863 1h 15m Houston IAH 12:16 → BWI 16:30UA 1720 8h 15m 98% 90%
DeltaDetails → SMF 06:30 → ATL 14:09DL 741 2h 36m Atlanta ATL 16:45 → BWI 18:41DL 2928 9h 11m 99% 87%
UnitedDetails → SMF 07:00 → ORD 13:10UA 2370 1h 19m Chicago ORD 14:29 → BWI 17:32UA 2737 7h 32m 98% 85%
UnitedDetails → SMF 08:50 → DEN 12:16UA 2285 1h 46m Denver DEN 14:02 → BWI 19:33UA 363 7h 43m 98% 85%
UnitedDetails → SMF 09:39 → ORD 15:53UA 1278 2h 18m Chicago ORD 18:11 → BWI 21:12UA 1557 8h 33m 97% 81%
AlaskaDetails → SMF 05:54 → SEA 07:53AS 1358 1h 10m Seattle SEA 09:03 → BWI 17:04AS 378 8h 10m 95% 79%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON