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Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 12:21, is the safest bet: 91% chance of reaching Charlotte on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Charlotte on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Charlotte is 3 h ahead of Sacramento). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SMF 12:21 → ATL 20:05DL 904 2h 36m Atlanta ATL 22:41 → CLT 23:58DL 3177 8h 37m 99% 91%
DeltaDetails → SMF 06:15 → MSP 11:38DL 2229 2h 52m Minneapolis MSP 14:30 → CLT 18:02DL 2820 8h 47m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → SMF 06:30 → ATL 14:09DL 741 3h 51m Atlanta ATL 18:00 → CLT 19:21DL 3158 9h 51m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → SMF 05:30 → SLC 08:12DL 1526 2h 43m Salt Lake City SLC 10:55 → CLT 16:52DL 2070 8h 22m 99% 88%
UnitedDetails → SMF 05:00 → DEN 08:22UA 1889 1h 27m Denver DEN 09:49 → CLT 15:03UA 2231 7h 03m 99% 87%
AmericanDetails → SMF 11:03 → DFW 16:45AA 2081 3h 30m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 20:15 → CLT 23:53AA 460 9h 50m 99% 86%
AmericanDetails → SMF 06:00 → PHX 07:55AA 1867 1h 57m Phoenix PHX 09:52 → CLT 17:03AA 665 8h 03m 98% 85%
AmericanDetails → SMF 05:18 → DFW 10:47AA 1544 1h 08m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 11:55 → CLT 15:36AA 1696 7h 18m 97% 85%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON