Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 5–14% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 1544 SMF 05:18 → DFW 10:47 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest AA 2078 SMF 14:30 → DFW 20:14 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1544 American Flight history →	SMF 05:18	DFW 10:47	5%	3%	0.7%	90%
AA 1021 American Flight history →	SMF 06:42	DFW 12:10	7%	3%	0.7%	85%
AA 2081 American Flight history →	SMF 11:03	DFW 16:45	13%	3%	0.7%	85%
AA 2078 American Flight history →	SMF 14:30	DFW 20:14	14%	5%	0.7%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON