Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, WN 191 at 19:35, with a 21% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


WN 191 Southwest	SMF 19:35	EUG 20:58	21%	6%	0.7%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Eugene on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SMF 09:45 → SLC 12:27DL 1367	2h 35m Salt Lake City	SLC 15:02 → EUG 16:02DL 4105 · flown by SkyWest	6h 17m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	SMF 17:20 → SEA 19:25DL 4153 · flown by SkyWest	3h 10m Seattle	SEA 22:35 → EUG 23:51DL 3855 · flown by SkyWest	6h 31m	98%	85%
Alaska Details →	SMF 06:53 → SAN 08:28AS 636	1h 46m San Diego	SAN 10:14 → EUG 12:53AS 2107 · flown by Horizon	6h 00m	93%	73%
Alaska Details →	SMF 11:53 → PDX 13:42AS 3003 · flown by SkyWest	48m Portland	PDX 14:30 → EUG 15:23AS 3042 · flown by SkyWest	3h 30m	82%	71%
United Details →	SMF 14:07 → SFO 15:10UA 5323 · flown by SkyWest	1h 08m San Francisco	SFO 16:18 → EUG 17:57UA 502	3h 50m	82%	68%
Delta Details →	SMF 07:53 → SEA 10:05DL 4075 · flown by SkyWest	1h 25m Seattle	SEA 11:30 → EUG 12:58DL 4149 · flown by SkyWest	5h 05m	87%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON