Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 11:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: United via Denver, leaving 13:00, is the safest bet: 79% chance of reaching Newark on time.

Nonstops that day


UA 2075 United	SMF 23:28	EWR 07:44	10%	3%	0.7%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Newark on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Newark is 3 h ahead of Sacramento). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	SMF 18:47 → LAX 20:39UA 5628 · flown by SkyWest	2h 36m Los Angeles	LAX 23:15 → EWR 07:30 +1UA 2303	9h 43m	100%	88%
Delta Details →	SMF 17:00 → SLC 19:41DL 1342	3h 57m Salt Lake City	SLC 23:38 → EWR 06:00 +1DL 2038	10h 00m	99%	88%
United Details →	SMF 05:00 → DEN 08:22UA 1889	1h 36m Denver	DEN 09:58 → EWR 15:59UA 2381	7h 59m	99%	87%
United Details →	SMF 05:15 → IAH 11:01UA 2863	2h 45m Houston	IAH 13:46 → EWR 18:30UA 1397	10h 15m	100%	86%
Delta Details →	SMF 06:15 → MSP 11:38DL 2229	2h 32m Minneapolis	MSP 14:10 → EWR 17:53DL 2866	8h 38m	98%	85%
Delta Details →	SMF 05:30 → SLC 08:12DL 1526	2h 17m Salt Lake City	SLC 10:29 → EWR 16:49DL 2033	8h 19m	98%	85%
Delta Details →	SMF 12:21 → ATL 20:05DL 904	1h 36m Atlanta	ATL 21:41 → EWR 23:52DL 2527	8h 31m	97%	82%
Delta Details →	SMF 06:30 → ATL 14:09DL 741	1h 24m Atlanta	ATL 15:33 → EWR 17:53DL 2340	8h 23m	97%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON