Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6: one nonstop, WN 3836 at 11:55, with a 12% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


WN 3836 Southwest	SMF 11:55	HOU 17:42	12%	2%	0.5%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Houston is 2 h ahead of Sacramento). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SMF 06:30 → ATL 14:09DL 741	1h 03m Atlanta	ATL 15:12 → HOU 16:22DL 2381	7h 52m	96%	84%
American Details →	SMF 11:03 → DFW 16:45AA 2081	1h 58m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:43 → HOU 20:04AA 3391 · flown by Envoy	7h 01m	95%	84%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON