tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6: American via Phoenix, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 73% chance of reaching Houston on time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 2863 United Flight history → SMF 05:15 IAH 11:01 5% 2% 0.6% 93%
UA 1949 United Flight history → SMF 13:15 IAH 19:10 13% 3% 0.6% 88%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Houston is 2 h ahead of Sacramento). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → SMF 05:00 → DEN 08:22UA 1889 1h 48m Denver DEN 10:10 → IAH 13:52UA 2030 6h 52m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → SMF 14:15 → LAX 15:52DL 3812 · flown by SkyWest 2h 43m Los Angeles LAX 18:35 → IAH 23:59DL 1287 7h 44m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → SMF 06:15 → MSP 11:38DL 2229 3h 07m Minneapolis MSP 14:45 → IAH 17:39DL 2644 9h 24m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → SMF 12:21 → ATL 20:05DL 904 2h 43m Atlanta ATL 22:48 → IAH 23:57DL 1601 9h 36m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → SMF 05:30 → SLC 08:12DL 1526 1h 24m Salt Lake City SLC 09:36 → IAH 13:46DL 1532 6h 16m 98% 86%
UnitedDetails → SMF 07:00 → ORD 13:10UA 2370 2h 55m Chicago ORD 16:05 → IAH 19:10UA 714 10h 10m 99% 86%
UnitedDetails → SMF 10:04 → LAX 11:34UA 6021 · flown by SkyWest 3h 46m Los Angeles LAX 15:20 → IAH 20:49UA 2377 8h 45m 96% 85%
DeltaDetails → SMF 06:00 → LAX 07:40DL 3969 · flown by SkyWest 2h 00m Los Angeles LAX 09:40 → IAH 15:04DL 1143 7h 04m 95% 85%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON