Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 06:15, is the safest bet: 85% chance of reaching New York on time.

Nonstops that day


B6 162 JetBlue Flight history →	SMF 23:05	JFK 07:29	21%	5%	0.8%	72%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 3 h ahead of Sacramento). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SMF 12:21 → ATL 20:05DL 904	2h 29m Atlanta	ATL 22:34 → JFK 00:46 +1DL 1632	9h 25m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	SMF 05:30 → SLC 08:12DL 1526	1h 47m Salt Lake City	SLC 09:59 → JFK 16:47DL 1792	8h 17m	98%	87%
Delta Details →	SMF 17:20 → SEA 19:25DL 4153 · flown by SkyWest	3h 15m Seattle	SEA 22:40 → JFK 06:50 +1DL 452	10h 30m	98%	87%
Delta Details →	SMF 11:34 → SEA 13:45DL 3881 · flown by SkyWest	3h 15m Seattle	SEA 17:00 → JFK 00:53 +1DL 1044	10h 19m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	SMF 06:00 → LAX 07:40DL 3969 · flown by SkyWest	2h 10m Los Angeles	LAX 09:50 → JFK 18:35DL 951	9h 35m	98%	86%
Delta Details →	SMF 06:15 → MSP 11:38DL 2229	1h 16m Minneapolis	MSP 12:54 → JFK 17:00DL 2661	7h 45m	96%	85%
Delta Details →	SMF 09:45 → SLC 12:27DL 1367	2h 08m Salt Lake City	SLC 14:35 → JFK 21:25DL 671	8h 40m	98%	85%
Delta Details →	SMF 11:17 → LAX 12:56DL 3755 · flown by SkyWest	2h 19m Los Angeles	LAX 15:15 → JFK 23:21DL 991	9h 04m	99%	84%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON