Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: WN 3701 at 05:28 is the safest bet, 1% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 8–14%.

Safest bet that day WN 3701 SMF 05:28 → LAS 07:07 · 1% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 2070 SMF 17:07 → LAS 18:36 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time

Against a calm day 8% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3701 Southwest	SMF 05:28	LAS 07:07	1%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 4555 Southwest	SMF 07:47	LAS 09:13	2%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 1696 Southwest	SMF 08:46	LAS 10:10	5%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 656 Southwest	SMF 20:07	LAS 21:30	8%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 3702 Southwest	SMF 15:29	LAS 16:53	8%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 4556 Southwest	SMF 12:33	LAS 13:58	9%	2%	0.5%	no record
WN 1056 Southwest	SMF 11:24	LAS 12:49	9%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 4560 Southwest	SMF 18:16	LAS 19:39	10%	3%	0.6%	no record
F9 4144 Frontier Flight history →	SMF 08:19	LAS 10:02	13%	5%	0.8%	74%
F9 2070 Frontier Flight history →	SMF 17:07	LAS 18:36	14%	5%	1.0%	84%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON