Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 16 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 16 nonstops are 5–12% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 1221 SMF 06:48 → LAX 08:25 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3707 SMF 18:07 → LAX 19:27 · 12% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 7% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 6% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1221 Southwest	SMF 06:48	LAX 08:25	5%	1%	0.6%	no record
DL 3969 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SMF 06:00	LAX 07:40	5%	3%	0.6%	96%
DL 3755 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SMF 11:17	LAX 12:56	6%	3%	0.6%	94%
AA 6265 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SMF 07:00	LAX 08:41	6%	3%	0.6%	90%
UA 5628 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SMF 18:47	LAX 20:39	6%	3%	0.6%	99%
DL 3759 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SMF 20:50	LAX 22:44	6%	3%	0.6%	90%
DL 3812 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SMF 14:15	LAX 15:52	7%	3%	0.5%	91%
UA 6021 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SMF 10:04	LAX 11:34	7%	3%	0.6%	94%
DL 3700 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SMF 09:21	LAX 10:58	7%	3%	0.6%	84%
UA 5390 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SMF 14:22	LAX 15:58	8%	3%	0.5%	84%
WN 2039 Southwest	SMF 10:05	LAX 11:34	8%	1%	0.6%	no record
OO 6279 SkyWest	SMF 11:25	LAX 12:59	8%	3%	0.6%	no record
DL 3712 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SMF 20:48	LAX 22:21	8%	3%	0.6%	89%
WN 1591 Southwest	SMF 13:01	LAX 14:27	9%	2%	0.5%	no record
WN 1567 Southwest	SMF 16:19	LAX 17:46	10%	2%	0.5%	no record
WN 3707 Southwest	SMF 18:07	LAX 19:27	12%	2%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON