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Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: United via Denver, leaving 05:00, is the safest bet: 91% chance of reaching Kansas City on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Kansas City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Kansas City is 2 h ahead of Sacramento). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → SMF 05:00 → DEN 08:22UA 1889 1h 28m Denver DEN 09:50 → MCI 12:38UA 2159 5h 38m 99% 91%
DeltaDetails → SMF 05:30 → SLC 08:12DL 1526 2h 22m Salt Lake City SLC 10:34 → MCI 13:57DL 2882 6h 27m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → SMF 06:15 → MSP 11:38DL 2229 2h 07m Minneapolis MSP 13:45 → MCI 15:14DL 1613 6h 59m 98% 90%
AmericanDetails → SMF 06:00 → PHX 07:55AA 1867 2h 46m Phoenix PHX 10:41 → MCI 15:28AA 1622 7h 28m 99% 88%
UnitedDetails → SMF 08:09 → IAD 16:15UA 1742 1h 49m Dulles IAD 18:04 → MCI 19:57UA 1165 9h 48m 100% 88%
DeltaDetails → SMF 12:21 → ATL 20:05DL 904 2h 43m Atlanta ATL 22:48 → MCI 23:58DL 2911 9h 37m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → SMF 06:00 → LAX 07:40DL 3969 · flown by SkyWest 1h 55m Los Angeles LAX 09:35 → MCI 14:50DL 1517 6h 50m 97% 87%
DeltaDetails → SMF 09:45 → SLC 12:27DL 1367 1h 13m Salt Lake City SLC 13:40 → MCI 17:05DL 2903 5h 20m 97% 86%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON