Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 3717 at 06:58 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 12–13%.

Safest bet that day WN 3717 SMF 06:58 → ONT 08:33 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1473 SMF 17:07 → ONT 18:33 · 13% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 7% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 6% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3717 Southwest	SMF 06:58	ONT 08:33	2%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 2405 Southwest	SMF 08:51	ONT 10:23	3%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 1822 Southwest	SMF 11:43	ONT 13:09	7%	2%	0.5%	no record
WN 2638 Southwest	SMF 13:21	ONT 14:50	8%	2%	0.5%	no record
WN 1190 Southwest	SMF 18:37	ONT 20:04	12%	3%	0.5%	no record
WN 1473 Southwest	SMF 17:07	ONT 18:33	13%	3%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON