Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: UA 2370 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 10–22%.

Safest bet that day UA 2370 SMF 07:00 → ORD 13:10 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest UA 2797 SMF 14:17 → ORD 20:17 · 22% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2370 United Flight history →	SMF 07:00	ORD 13:10	8%	3%	0.5%	87%
UA 1278 United Flight history →	SMF 09:39	ORD 15:53	10%	3%	0.5%	85%
AA 1906 American	SMF 14:55	ORD 21:05	15%	5%	0.7%	no record
UA 2797 United	SMF 14:17	ORD 20:17	22%	5%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON