Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 4–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 4156 SMF 08:12 → PDX 09:50 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 308 SMF 14:59 → PDX 16:36 · 13% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


WN 4156 Southwest	SMF 08:12	PDX 09:50	4%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 3726 Southwest	SMF 20:05	PDX 21:42	8%	3%	0.5%	no record
WN 2761 Southwest	SMF 14:33	PDX 16:12	9%	2%	0.5%	no record
AS 578 Alaska	SMF 08:00	PDX 09:44	9%	2%	0.7%	no record
AS 1706 Alaska	SMF 12:28	PDX 14:04	11%	2%	0.7%	no record
AS 308 Alaska	SMF 14:59	PDX 16:36	13%	2%	0.7%	no record
AS 2095 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SMF 08:13	PDX 09:47	9%	4%	1.5%	91%
AS 2335 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SMF 19:17	PDX 20:50	33%	10%	1.9%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON