Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 6:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: WN 1015 at 06:03 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 11–12%.

Safest bet that day WN 1015 SMF 06:03 → PHX 08:06 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 1677 SMF 12:46 → PHX 14:50 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time

Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1015 Southwest	SMF 06:03	PHX 08:06	2%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 1474 Southwest	SMF 08:43	PHX 10:40	5%	1%	0.5%	no record
AA 1867 American Flight history →	SMF 06:00	PHX 07:55	7%	3%	0.6%	93%
WN 4679 Southwest	SMF 13:01	PHX 14:57	11%	2%	0.5%	no record
WN 230 Southwest	SMF 14:56	PHX 16:56	11%	2%	0.5%	no record
OO 4913 SkyWest	SMF 10:09	PHX 12:33	11%	5%	0.6%	no record
MQ 4070 Envoy	SMF 16:35	PHX 18:34	11%	3%	0.7%	no record
WN 3730 Southwest	SMF 17:19	PHX 19:14	12%	3%	0.5%	no record
WN 3729 Southwest	SMF 18:42	PHX 20:34	12%	3%	0.5%	no record
AA 1677 American Flight history →	SMF 12:46	PHX 14:50	13%	4%	0.6%	86%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON