tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6: one nonstop, WN 3053 at 08:47, with a 5% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 3053 Southwest SMF 08:47 PSP 10:14 5% 2% 0.5% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Palm Springs on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SMF 05:30 → SLC 08:12DL 1526 2h 33m Salt Lake City SLC 10:45 → PSP 11:41DL 4042 · flown by SkyWest 6h 11m 99% 95%
DeltaDetails → SMF 09:45 → SLC 12:27DL 1367 3h 13m Salt Lake City SLC 15:40 → PSP 16:33DL 3852 · flown by SkyWest 6h 48m 99% 94%
UnitedDetails → SMF 05:00 → DEN 08:22UA 1889 2h 50m Denver DEN 11:12 → PSP 12:37UA 687 7h 37m 99% 88%
UnitedDetails → SMF 14:22 → LAX 15:58UA 5390 · flown by SkyWest 2h 58m Los Angeles LAX 18:56 → PSP 20:10UA 5345 · flown by SkyWest 5h 48m 99% 87%
AmericanDetails → SMF 05:18 → DFW 10:47AA 1544 2h 12m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:59 → PSP 14:19AA 2548 9h 01m 99% 84%
UnitedDetails → SMF 14:07 → SFO 15:10UA 5323 · flown by SkyWest 3h 28m San Francisco SFO 18:38 → PSP 20:26UA 5705 · flown by SkyWest 6h 19m 99% 83%
AmericanDetails → SMF 06:00 → PHX 07:55AA 1867 2h 52m Phoenix PHX 10:47 → PSP 12:02AA 1884 6h 02m 99% 83%
UnitedDetails → SMF 13:00 → DEN 16:26UA 1961 3h 01m Denver DEN 19:27 → PSP 21:00UA 2644 8h 00m 97% 81%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON