Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · 14 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 4566 at 06:23 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–27%.

Safest bet that day WN 4566 SMF 06:23 → SAN 08:03 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1669 SMF 17:26 → SAN 18:56 · 27% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 19% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 15% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


WN 4566 Southwest	SMF 06:23	SAN 08:03	5%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 1991 Southwest	SMF 09:25	SAN 10:58	8%	2%	0.6%	no record
AS 636 Alaska Flight history →	SMF 06:53	SAN 08:28	15%	2%	1.2%	71%
OO 3209 SkyWest	SMF 10:46	SAN 12:32	16%	5%	0.7%	no record
WN 2854 Southwest	SMF 10:56	SAN 12:27	17%	3%	0.6%	no record
AS 3439 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SMF 13:30	SAN 15:14	22%	5%	0.7%	77%
WN 3734 Southwest	SMF 13:14	SAN 14:46	23%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 3735 Southwest	SMF 13:53	SAN 15:28	23%	4%	0.6%	no record
WN 4011 Southwest	SMF 15:53	SAN 17:26	23%	5%	0.6%	no record
WN 505 Southwest	SMF 18:39	SAN 20:10	24%	5%	0.7%	no record
WN 4705 Southwest	SMF 20:24	SAN 21:52	25%	5%	0.7%	no record
WN 1669 Southwest	SMF 17:26	SAN 18:56	27%	5%	0.7%	no record
AS 2406 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SMF 16:43	SAN 18:20	38%	8%	2.0%	62%
AS 2101 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SMF 10:13	SAN 11:50	43%	11%	2.2%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON