Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, WN 4494 at 08:48, with a 6% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


WN 4494 Southwest	SMF 08:48	SBA 10:08	6%	1%	0.7%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Santa Barbara on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SMF 05:30 → SLC 08:12DL 1526	2h 38m Salt Lake City	SLC 10:50 → SBA 11:59DL 3841 · flown by SkyWest	6h 29m	99%	94%
Delta Details →	SMF 17:00 → SLC 19:41DL 1342	1h 24m Salt Lake City	SLC 21:05 → SBA 22:05DL 3803 · flown by SkyWest	5h 05m	95%	91%
American Details →	SMF 06:00 → PHX 07:55AA 1867	2h 04m Phoenix	PHX 09:59 → SBA 11:51AA 2928	5h 51m	98%	88%
United Details →	SMF 14:07 → SFO 15:10UA 5323 · flown by SkyWest	1h 53m San Francisco	SFO 17:03 → SBA 18:32UA 639	4h 25m	95%	84%
Alaska Details →	SMF 08:13 → PDX 09:47AS 2095 · flown by Horizon	1h 00m Portland	PDX 10:47 → SBA 13:05AS 2317 · flown by Horizon	4h 52m	91%	82%
American Details →	SMF 12:46 → PHX 14:50AA 1677	2h 14m Phoenix	PHX 17:04 → SBA 18:49AA 1855	6h 03m	95%	79%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	SMF 10:13 → SAN 11:50AS 2101 · flown by Horizon	59m San Diego	SAN 12:49 → SBA 14:02AS 2177 · flown by Horizon	3h 49m	55%	33%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON