Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 13 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: WN 3744 at 06:08 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 9–25%.

Safest bet that day WN 3744 SMF 06:08 → SEA 08:14 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 692 SMF 08:37 → SEA 10:37 · 33% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 17% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3744 Southwest	SMF 06:08	SEA 08:14	5%	1%	0.5%	no record
DL 4043 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SMF 20:59	SEA 23:08	9%	4%	0.5%	81%
AS 1358 Alaska Flight history →	SMF 05:54	SEA 07:53	9%	2%	0.7%	78%
DL 4125 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SMF 13:00	SEA 15:09	12%	5%	0.5%	93%
DL 4153 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SMF 17:20	SEA 19:25	12%	4%	0.5%	85%
DL 3881 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SMF 11:34	SEA 13:45	13%	4%	0.5%	90%
WN 3096 Southwest	SMF 20:06	SEA 21:52	15%	5%	0.5%	no record
WN 563 Southwest	SMF 13:12	SEA 15:06	15%	3%	0.4%	no record
DL 4075 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SMF 07:53	SEA 10:05	22%	4%	0.6%	89%worse than usual
AS 1365 Alaska Flight history →	SMF 10:21	SEA 12:12	22%	3%	0.6%	86%
AS 406 Alaska	SMF 12:43	SEA 14:37	25%	3%	0.6%	no record
AS 1437 Alaska	SMF 17:17	SEA 19:11	25%	3%	0.6%	no record
AS 692 Alaska	SMF 08:37	SEA 10:37	33%	3%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON