Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Tomorrow: UA 1329 at 05:48 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 13–18%.

Safest bet that day UA 1329 SMF 05:48 → SFO 06:51 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 5323 SMF 14:07 → SFO 15:10 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 56% on time

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1329 United	SMF 05:48	SFO 06:51	6%	3%	0.6%	no record
OO 5218 SkyWest	SMF 11:48	SFO 12:54	13%	6%	0.7%	no record
UA 5323 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SMF 14:07	SFO 15:10	18%	8%	0.7%	56%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON