tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 6:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, WN 3755 at 12:10, with a 13% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 3755 Southwest SMF 12:10 STL 17:54 13% 2% 0.4% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach St Louis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (St Louis is 2 h ahead of Sacramento). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SMF 05:30 → SLC 08:12DL 1526 1h 28m Salt Lake City SLC 09:40 → STL 13:33DL 2455 6h 03m 98% 90%
DeltaDetails → SMF 06:15 → MSP 11:38DL 2229 3h 27m Minneapolis MSP 15:05 → STL 16:41DL 1224 8h 26m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → SMF 12:21 → ATL 20:05DL 904 3h 05m Atlanta ATL 23:10 → STL 23:53DL 1403 9h 32m 100% 88%
UnitedDetails → SMF 05:00 → DEN 08:22UA 1889 1h 13m Denver DEN 09:35 → STL 12:42UA 652 5h 42m 99% 87%
AmericanDetails → SMF 06:42 → DFW 12:10AA 1021 2h 41m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 14:51 → STL 16:41AA 3944 · flown by Envoy 7h 59m 98% 86%
DeltaDetails → SMF 06:30 → ATL 14:09DL 741 3h 01m Atlanta ATL 17:10 → STL 17:53DL 1393 9h 23m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → SMF 09:45 → SLC 12:27DL 1367 2h 43m Salt Lake City SLC 15:10 → STL 19:00DL 1492 7h 15m 99% 84%
UnitedDetails → SMF 07:00 → ORD 13:10UA 2370 1h 10m Chicago ORD 14:20 → STL 15:46UA 2000 6h 46m 98% 84%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → SMF 10:21 → SEA 12:12AS 1365 54m Seattle SEA 13:06 → STL 18:53AS 672 6h 32m 64% 43%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON