Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 8–18% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 721 SNA 06:45 → ATL 14:19 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time Riskiest DL 1521 SNA 12:15 → ATL 19:49 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time

Against a calm day 15% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 721 Delta Flight history →	SNA 06:45	ATL 14:19	8%	2%	0.7%	81%
DL 9967 Delta	SNA 14:56	ATL 22:18	17%	4%	0.7%	no record
DL 329 Delta Flight history →	SNA 14:00	ATL 21:38	18%	5%	0.7%	77%
DL 1521 Delta Flight history →	SNA 12:15	ATL 19:49	18%	4%	0.7%	85%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	SNA 09:50 → SLC 12:46DL 1198	49m Salt Lake City	SLC 13:35 → ATL 19:22DL 906	6h 32m	88%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON