tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 6:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, WN 1579 at 07:51, with a 6% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 1579 Southwest SNA 07:51 AUS 12:36 6% 2% 0.5% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Austin on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Austin is 2 h ahead of Santa Ana). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → SNA 10:20 → DEN 13:43UA 2843 1h 52m Denver DEN 15:35 → AUS 18:48UA 1899 6h 28m 100% 86%
DeltaDetails → SNA 07:15 → SLC 10:13DL 1185 3h 16m Salt Lake City SLC 13:29 → AUS 17:19DL 2689 8h 04m 98% 86%
UnitedDetails → SNA 08:45 → DEN 12:09UA 489 1h 35m Denver DEN 13:44 → AUS 16:58UA 2270 6h 13m 97% 86%
DeltaDetails → SNA 06:45 → ATL 14:19DL 721 1h 31m Atlanta ATL 15:50 → AUS 17:19DL 1491 8h 34m 97% 85%
UnitedDetails → SNA 12:01 → IAH 17:36UA 2044 2h 42m Houston IAH 20:18 → AUS 21:25UA 2621 7h 24m 98% 84%
AmericanDetails → SNA 09:08 → DFW 14:02AA 1686 3h 15m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 17:17 → AUS 18:22AA 3722 · flown by Envoy 7h 14m 97% 84%
UnitedDetails → SNA 15:05 → IAH 20:27UA 643 1h 48m Houston IAH 22:15 → AUS 23:12UA 1179 6h 07m 96% 84%
UnitedDetails → SNA 07:45 → IAH 13:07UA 700 3h 13m Houston IAH 16:20 → AUS 17:27UA 1711 7h 42m 99% 83%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → SNA 14:45 → SEA 17:32AS 760 47m Seattle SEA 18:19 → AUS 00:31 +1AS 372 7h 46m 54% 43%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON